![]() For those looking to attain particular scores, here are the predictions from my estimate: ![]() To those who scored a 3 this year on AP Physics 1, this curve estimate predicts a 75% chance on approximate of scoring at least a 4 on AP Physics B in the last 5 years or so. With that said, there appears to be an incredibly narrow margin between a 3 and a 4 on this exam. In retrospect, someone on the official thread posted a similar percentage as their teacher’s prediction of the cutoff for a 5. Solving for this variable gives 78% as the minimum percentage for a 5 on this exam. Here, I assume I scored a high 3 in that my percentage was somewhere near the cutoff for a 4. If I create a proportion such that the lowest possible percentage on Physics B to attain a 5 (64%) over the highest possible percentage to attain a 3 on Physics B (50%) is equal to a variable over my percentage on Physics 1 (61%), I can predict the minimum percentage needed on this exam to attain a 5. Note: this also indicates an increased harshness of the curve for Physics 1 that should be taken into account. On the AP Physics B curve, my performance on the FRQ’s would have boosted my score to a 4. Combining my performance on the FRQ’s and the MC’s indicates I had approximately 61% of the exam correct and scored a 3. For the AP Physics B curve, my performance on the MC’s would provide me a 75% chance of attaining a 3 (which so happened to be my score on the Physics 1 exam). This information is useful assuming I am a slightly-above-average AP Physics 1 student. Thus, I assume about 46% of my multiple choice responses to be correct. Due to the easiness of the multi-select questions on this exam, I am going to assume I answered at least three correctly. I am going to assume my performance on the multiple choice questions of the real exam was approximately the same as that of the practice exam, aside from my answering of all 50 MC’s. I did not answer three questions at the end (multiple-select questions). On the other hand, my performance on the CB practice multiple choice was a 20/50. From Dan Fullerton’s solutions to the five FRQ’s, I assume I answered 75% of the questions correctly. From Dan Fullerton’s posting of the free response solutions, my performance on the full practice exam (which I expect to differ slightly from that on the actual exam) and my memory of the actual exam, I am able to predict the magnitudes of this year’s curve. The AP Physics 1 exam consists of 50 multiple choice questions followed by 5 FRQ’s. Between 49 and 62 would result in a score of 2, and of course, anything below this range would result in a score of 1. Between 63 and 90 would result in a score of 3. Between 91 and 114 would result in a score of 4. The AP Physics B exam had a composite of 180 (as does AP Physics 1) and generally, between 115-180 points would result in a score of 5. This can better better help future students on here generally expecting a “4/5” to understand approximately at what level they should perform to attain such. Understandably, such poor performance can be linked to it being the first year this exam was offered or the lack of information provided to students/educators still, in my opinion, the data provided by Trevor Packer can be utilized to estimate the curve for this year’s exam. The average score on AP Physics B in the past four years has consistently been approximately 2.91, whereas on AP Physics 1, the average score has now dropped to a 2.25. With a 63.1% rate of failure on this year’s test, it is obvious that the curve has become substantially worse compared to that of the former course ‘AP Physics B’. According to Trevor Packer, this year’s score percentages were as follows: 5: 4.1% 4: 12.8% 3: 20% 2: 30.2% 1: 32.9%.
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